The 10.5% Illusion: Why Polymarket's Iran Regime Change Odds Are Noise, Not Signal
You think a 10.5% probability on a prediction market is a rational forecast o...
iran crisis related articles
You think a 10.5% probability on a prediction market is a rational forecast o...
Fear
Market Sentiment
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
92 million ARB released
Team and early investor shares released
Block reward halving event
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Bitcoin Season
| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,157.8 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,859.31 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$73.84 |
| 1 |
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BNB
|
$564.4 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.09 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0692 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1637 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.27 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8052 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.32 |